← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Luca Pairetto, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 44% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 24% | 24% | 4.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 35% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |