← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 36% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | 2.90 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0 | 55% | 1.84 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 66% | 1.39 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Genoa CFC |
| 18' | ⚽ | Vitinha · Genoa CFC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gennaro Borrelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Leo Østigard · Genoa CFC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 46' | 🟨 | Matteo Prati · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gennaro Borrelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Albert Grønbæk · Genoa CFC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Cagliari Calcio |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| 83' |
| ⚽ |
| Aarón Martín · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 509.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1628.88 | 1657.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.72 | -15.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.75 |