← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 34% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +5% |
| Genoa CFC win | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Genoa CFC +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 67% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Leo Østigard · Genoa CFC |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 23' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa CFC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mikael Ellertsson · Genoa CFC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 131.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1655.90 | 1757.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.05 | -19.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 5.85 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.86 |