← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 40% | 45% | 2.42 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 20 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |