← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 70% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.15 | value: +21% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 11% | 11% | 9.75 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Hellas Verona FC +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |