← Serie A 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 66% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 13% | 12% | 7.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Juventus FC −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Saba Goglichidze · Udinese Calcio |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jakub Piotrowski · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolò Zaniolo · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Federico Gatti · Juventus FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sandi Lovrić · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lennon Miller · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michele Di Gregorio · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenan Yıldız · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1809.03 | 1607.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.14 | -16.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.91 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 28.71 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.18 |