← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 34% | 26% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 38% | 2.92 | value: +12% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 33% | 35% | 2.94 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jon Rowe · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 25' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | 🟨 | Emil Holm · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟨 | Emil Holm · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟥 | Emil Holm · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhon Lucumí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 117.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1790.76 | 1817.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.95 | 17.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.61 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.72 |