← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 65% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +4% |
| Cremonese win | 14% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cremonese +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Atalanta BC +1.25 | 48% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |