← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ermanno Feliciani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 55% | 2.01 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 21% | 17% | 4.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jesper Karlström · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Nikola Štulić · US Lecce |
| 37' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · US Lecce |
| 59' | ⚽ | Medon Berisha · US Lecce |
| 89' | ⚽ | Adam Buksa · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Buksa · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Konan N'Dri · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli |
| coach days | 511.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1600.38 | 1564.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.60 | 3.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.71 | — |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.89 |