← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Livio Marinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.64 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 19% | 17% | 5.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Milan −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 57% | 2.10 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Zachary Athekame · AC Milan |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · ACF Fiorentina |
| 55' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan |
| 63' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 79.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1871.01 | 1783.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.60 | -37.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 28.23 |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.18 |