← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Piccinini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 47% | 58% | 2.10 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 23% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.5 | 53% | 1.93 |
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Torino FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kristjan Asllani · Torino FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cesare Casadei · Torino FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Torino FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guillermo Maripán · Torino FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ |
| Saúl Coco · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 460.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1816.53 | 1702.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.78 | -9.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 4.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.69 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.91 |