← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Giuseppe Collu, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 38% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 38% | 3.06 | value: +16% |
| Torino FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Over | 40% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Ndiaye · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Cyril Ngonge · Torino FC |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cyril Ngonge · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Niels Nkounkou · Torino FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alieu Njie · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 90.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1631.45 | 1712.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.15 | -9.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.15 | 8.15 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.59 | 28.03 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.86 |