← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 55% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +15% |
| US Lecce win | 18% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0.75 | 52% | 2.00 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.75 | 48% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thijs Dallinga · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · US Lecce |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 66' | 🟨 | Antonino Gallo · US Lecce |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jens Odgaard · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Camarda · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Francesco Camarda · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days | 89.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1546.74 | 1749.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.72 | -11.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.89 | 2.88 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.82 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.72 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.91 |