← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 66% | 65% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.57 | value: +3% |
| Cremonese win | 12% | 13% | 7.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Como 1907 −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Federico Baschirotto · Cremonese |
| 28' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jacobo Ramón · Como 1907 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Cremonese |
| 69' | ⚽ | Federico Baschirotto · Cremonese |
| 82' | 🟥 | Jesús Rodriguez · Como 1907 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Romano Floriani Mussolini · Cremonese |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Sanabria · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| coach days | 453.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1725.02 | 1608.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.63 | 39.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 5.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 28.37 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.06 |