← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Giuseppe Collu, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 47% | 55% | 2.15 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 21% | 18% | 4.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 52% | 2.00 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vitinha · Genoa CFC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Patrizio Masini · Genoa CFC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Leo Østigard · Genoa CFC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mikael Ellertsson · Genoa CFC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentín Carboni · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 476.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1800.98 | 1696.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.85 | 9.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.76 | 4.76 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.42 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.16 |