← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Luca Zufferli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 34% | 35% | 2.82 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| US Lecce +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 67% | 1.56 | value: +5% |
| Over | 37% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Tiago Gabriel · US Lecce |
| 20' | 🟨 | Tiago Gabriel · US Lecce |
| 26' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 33' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matteo Prati · Cagliari Calcio |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days | 80.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1557.19 | 1601.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.28 | 24.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 5.24 | 6.24 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.88 |