← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
| Torino FC win | 14% | 11% | 7.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Roma −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Torino FC −1 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +4% |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand