← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Colombo, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Juventus FC win | 34% | 30% | 2.85 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 33% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 37% | 3.03 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Juventus FC +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 62% | 1.68 | value: +4% |
| Over | 42% | 38% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand