← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 75% | 75% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 9% | 8% | 11.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano −1.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Udinese Calcio −1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |