← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Bonacina, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 68% | 74% | 1.41 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.67 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SSC Napoli −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 45% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 55% | 2.20 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |