← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Como 1907 win | 40% | 32% | 2.48 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 31% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Como 1907 −0.25 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |