← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 45% | 2.43 | value: +10% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 26' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 39' | 🟥 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 46' | ⚽ | Nicolò Fagioli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lucas Beltrán · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Pietro Comuzzo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 59' | 🟨 | Amir Richardson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlström |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 25 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 358.00 |
| 358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1605.47 | 1759.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.73 | -21.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 44.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.31 |