← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 67% | 69% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.59 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 12% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SS Lazio −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 53% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Ante Rebić · US Lecce |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 43' | ⚽ | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟥 | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wladimiro Falcone · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 328.00 |
| 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.02 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1810.69 | 1548.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.17 | 3.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 65.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.89 |