← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, May 24, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 64% | 63% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 13% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Genoa CFC −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Vitinha · Genoa CFC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Venturino · Genoa CFC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Michel Aebischer · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Venturino · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sebastian Otoa · Genoa CFC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jean Onana · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Davide Calabria · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Jhon Lucumí · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 357.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1831.40 | 1681.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.33 | -26.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 62.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.89 |