← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 44% | 46% | 2.21 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 30% | 26% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 21' | 🟥 | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
| 25' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 39' | ⚽ | João Félix · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 58' | ⚽ | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 61' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 62' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 198.00 |
| 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1827.57 | 1808.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.17 | 34.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 43.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| league points | 63.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 26.42 |
| state index | 1.11 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.30 |