← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 57% | 59% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.09 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 19% | 20% | 5.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yann Bisseck · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Denzel Dumfries · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1417.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1997.22 | 1848.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.09 | 18.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 77.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 8.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 1.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 29.04 | 27.05 |
| state index | 1.28 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.50 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.97 |