← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 38% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 67% | 1.63 | value: +10% |
| Over | 41% | 33% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 20' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 67' | ⚽ | Amir Richardson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 79' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 88' | 🟥 | Juan Miranda · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 351.00 |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1750.05 | 1792.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.84 | -15.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 59.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.83 |