← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, May 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 36% | 29% | 2.72 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 33% | 46% | 2.90 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | ⚽ | Fali Candé · Venezia FC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gaetano Oristanio · Venezia FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Michael Folorunsho · ACF Fiorentina |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Beltrán · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo |
| coach days | 345.00 | 345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1592.80 | 1815.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.61 | 2.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 9.91 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.08 |