← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: V. Crezzini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 59% | 67% | 1.64 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.06 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 18% | 14% | 5.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| AC Monza −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · AC Monza |
| 50' | 🟨 | Arthur Atta · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 75' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| coach days |
| 344.00 |
| 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1625.85 | 1487.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.83 | -31.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.53 |
| league points | 44.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.71 | — |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.74 |