β Serie A 2024-25 Β· Sat, May 10, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Fabbri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Empoli win | 40% | 44% | 2.42 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 28% | 24% | 3.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Empoli β0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani β Computer Gross Arena |