← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 41% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Juventus FC win | 28% | 29% | 3.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · Juventus FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nicolò Savona · Juventus FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Juventus FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · Juventus FC |
| 60' | 🟥 | Pierre Kalulu · Juventus FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 313.00 |
| 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.23 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1806.82 | 1820.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.14 | -6.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 63.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 5.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 25.11 |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.06 |