← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Como 1907 win | 54% | 58% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 17% | 4.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Como 1907 −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 57% | 2.12 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |