← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, May 5, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Milan +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 48% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 52% | 2.06 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan |
| 27' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Vitinha · Genoa CFC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Morten Frendrup · AC Milan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Félix · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 185.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1687.56 | 1835.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.53 | 4.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.34 | 8.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 26.33 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.82 |