← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 54% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 19% | 17% | 5.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AS Roma −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand