← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Empoli win | 21% | 20% | 4.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Empoli +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.29 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · SS Lazio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Colombo · Empoli |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Colombo · Empoli |
| 38' | 🟥 | Lorenzo Colombo · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Saba Goglichidze · Empoli |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SS Lazio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SS Lazio |
| 76' | 🟥 | Elseid Hysaj · SS Lazio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Empoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mattia Viti · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Provstgaard · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 4.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1544.56 | 1801.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.78 | -2.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| league points | 25.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.60 |