β Serie A 2024-25 Β· Sat, May 3, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Massa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 65% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.15 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 12% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli +1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| US Lecce +1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |