← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 70% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.19 | value: +7% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 11% | 9% | 9.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1.25 | 53% | 1.91 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.38 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jacob Ondrejka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jacob Ondrejka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Giovanni Leoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 79' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Milan Đurić · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 301.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.58 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1850.98 | 1631.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.33 | 33.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 42.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 59.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.09 | 5.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 24.10 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.77 |