← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Perenzoni
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 78% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 7% | 9% | 13.89 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AC Monza −1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 68% | 1.55 | value: +5% |
| Under | 38% | 32% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · Juventus FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · Juventus FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Kenan Yıldız · Juventus FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nicolò Savona · Juventus FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luca Caldirola · AC Monza |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alberto Costa · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Andrea Carboni · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 57.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1867.11 | 1539.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.51 | -38.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 59.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 27.82 |
| state index | 0.70 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.67 |