← Serie A 2024-25 · Wed, Apr 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Torino FC win | 38% | 36% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 30% | 33% | 3.41 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Torino FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 40% | 2.61 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |