← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 46% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| US Lecce +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 33' | ⚽ | Assane Diao · Como 1907 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Álex Valle · Como 1907 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · Como 1907 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Medon Berisha · US Lecce |
| 84' | ⚽ | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannik Engelhardt · Como 1907 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |
| ⚽ |
| Assane Diao · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 169.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1589.56 | 1663.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.08 | 15.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 5.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.91 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 27.12 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.48 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.50 |