← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 40% | 32% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 30% | 38% | 3.27 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AS Roma +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 61% | 1.76 | value: +7% |
| Over | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gustav Isaksen · SS Lazio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Matías Soulé · AS Roma |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolò Rovella · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 286.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1831.04 | 1854.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.74 | -1.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| league points | 55.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 27.43 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.58 |