β Serie A 2024-25 Β· Sat, Apr 12, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Maresca
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Venezia FC win | 54% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 20% | 21% | 4.96 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AC Monza β0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Venezia FC β0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | value: +4% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo |