β Serie A 2024-25 Β· Sat, Apr 12, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 54% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 20% | 21% | 4.96 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza β0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Venezia FC β0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | value: +4% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | π¨ | Alessio Zerbin Β· Venezia FC |
| 27' | π¨ | Kacper UrbaΕski Β· AC Monza |
| 62' | π¨ | John Yeboah Β· Venezia FC |
| 67' | π¨ | Mikael Ellertsson Β· Venezia FC |
| 68' | π¨ | Luca Caldirola Β· AC Monza |
| 72' | β½ | Daniel Fila Β· Venezia FC |
| 74' | π¨ | Pedro Pereira Β· AC Monza |
| 82' | π¨ | Daniel Fila Β· Venezia FC |
| 90' | π¨ | Daniel Fila Β· Venezia FC |
| 90' | π₯ | Daniel Fila Β· Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo |
| coach days | 315.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1586.17 | 1550.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.46 | -40.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 29.24 |
| state index | -0.46 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.76 |