← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.73 | value: +10% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 20% | 24% | 4.90 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AC Milan −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Malick Thiaw · ACF Fiorentina |
| 10' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 23' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · AC Milan |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · ACF Fiorentina |
| 41' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · AC Milan |
| 58' | 🟨 | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 64' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
| 66' | 🟨 | David De Gea · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 94.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1775.19 | 1777.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.35 | 18.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 47.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 28.83 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.35 |