← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 31, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 53% | 59% | 1.84 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 20% | 16% | 5.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Torino FC −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 49% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 51% | 2.33 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Torino FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Guillermo Maripán · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sebastian Walukiewicz · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Gvidas Gineitis · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 273.00 |
| 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1794.20 | 1708.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.89 | 19.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| league points | 51.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 15.20 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.80 |