← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 19% | 16% | 5.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Cagliari Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
| 73' | ⚽ | Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 272.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1619.45 | 1576.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.90 | -19.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.64 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 13.81 | 14.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 27.75 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |