← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Empoli win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Como 1907 −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Saba Goglichidze · Empoli |
| 25' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · Como 1907 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Anastasios Douvikas · Como 1907 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Empoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
| 75' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Empoli |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jacopo Fazzini · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| coach days | 271.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1640.21 | 1599.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.22 | -24.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 13.88 | 13.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 27.49 |
| state index | 0.44 | -1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.04 |