← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.14 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 29% | 34% | 3.36 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Juventus FC +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · ACF Fiorentina |
| 15' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 18' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 288.00 |
| 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1746.97 | 1841.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.87 | 4.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 45.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.97 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 25.65 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.47 |