← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 26% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jens Odgaard · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 288.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1833.84 | 1856.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 50.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 28.96 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.43 |