← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 22% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| AC Milan −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Milan |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · AC Milan |
| 53' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 68' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 79' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · AC Milan |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gabriel Strefezza · Como 1907 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dele Alli · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 73.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1827.19 | 1644.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.05 | 28.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 44.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 24.44 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 0.91 |