← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 53% | 57% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 19% | 18% | 5.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 46% | 2.34 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Daniele Ghilardi · Hellas Verona FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Iker Bravo · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Arthur Atta · Udinese Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 287.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1706.45 | 1611.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.86 | -5.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 32.60 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -1.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 25.77 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.93 |